The authors start with the presentation of two retirement systems: before and
after the reform. They show how pensions are calculated in both systems. The
article examines changes in the replacement ratio resulting from the 1999 reform of the Polish pension system. Retirement benefi ts are estimated for eight
hypothetical individuals, men and women, with different levels of earnings. As
retirement benefi ts are the function of, among others, the future life expectancy,
the paper illustrates the differences in estimates resulting from the application of
two different life table perspectives: period and cohort. The defi cit of the statecontrolled pay-as-you-go component (the "fi rst pillar") of the pension system is
estimated under the assumption that the calculation of benefi ts involves the current period life tables of the Central Statistical Offi ce (GUS).
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1.
Bowers, N. L, Gerber, H. U., Hickman, J. C., Jones D. A., Nesbitt C. J. (1997). Actuarial Mathematics. Schaumburg: The Society of Actuaries.
Lee, R. D., Carter, L. R. (1992). “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, tom 87, numer 419, s. 659–671.
Pitacco, E. (2004). „From Italley to Frailty: A Review of Survival Models for Actuarial Calculations”, Giornale dell’Istituto Italiano degli Attuari (http://ssrn.com/abstract=74158...).
Więckowska, B., Bijak, J., red.T. Szumlicz, (2008). „Analiza ubezpieczeniowych implikacji wyników prognozy przeciętnego dalszego trwania życia uzyskanej metodą Lee i Cartera”. Wiadomości ubezpieczeniowe, wydanie specjalne. Warszawa: PIU, styczeń.
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